Wednesday, 31 August 2011

European Equity Index Technicals: European Rally Faltering


Intraday FTSE 100: Short-term bulls will look to extend the rally to meet the 5333.5 target - the minimum upside requirement. Tuesday's gains left an upside gap floor at 5172.0, and while Tuesday's low at 5199.0 holds, the near-term wave structure remains positive. Reaching 5333.5 would then create room for more gains to the mid-August reaction high at 5385.0. Only a break below the distant 5058.0 projected support level would concern bulls.

Weekly chart FTSE 100 trend: Bearish.

Intraday EURO STOXX 50: Resistance at 2273.0 needs to be broken, in order to attract further strength. Breaching 2273.0 would extend the rally off the  Aug. 26  low at 2137.0, and create the room needed for further gains to 2297.0 and the  Aug. 17  bull failure high at 2355.0. However, there is a lack of underlying momentum in this rally, and a break below Tuesday's 2213.0 low would turn the attention back onto the 2137.0 low.

Weekly chart EURO STOXX 50 trend: Bearish.

Intraday DAX 30: Downside risk towards 5405.0 still remains prevalent while Tuesday's 5731.5 high caps. Tuesday's negative candle protects the  Aug. 25  peak at 5779.5, and weakness towards 5572.0 would enhance the threat of a return to the  Aug. 26  low at 5405.0. Breaking above 5731.5 would lift the tone, opening 5779.5, and potentially 5838.5.

Weekly chart DAX 30 trend: Bearish.

Intraday CAC 40: Tuesday's probe above 3185.5 creates scope for more upside towards 3233.0. The  Aug. 26  low at 3007.0 has been confirmed as a higher low, and an extrapolated resistance line of a bear pennant continuation pattern lies at 3233.0. However, gains to 3252.0 and the  Aug. 17  reaction high at 3285.0 cannot be ruled out on concerted strength. A setback below 3122.5 is required to put bears in control of the near term, exposing 3077.5.

Weekly chart CAC 40 trend: Bearish.

* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.

By Francis Bray ; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@ dowjones.com

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